The commander of American forces in the Middle East bluntly warned a Senate committee on Thursday that sectarian violence in Iraq, especially in the capital, Baghdad, had grown so severe that the nation could slide toward civil war.
The commander, Gen. John P. Abizaid, also acknowledged that since the security situation remained so unstable, significant reductions in American forces were unlikely before the end of this year.
Asked by Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, whether Iraq risked falling into civil war, General Abizaid replied, “I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I’ve seen it, in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war.”
In March, General Abizaid told the Senate Appropriations Committee that sectarian violence in Iraq was replacing the insurgency as the greatest threat to security and stability.
But the tone of the testimony at the Armed Services Committee’s three-and-a-half-hour hearing was strikingly grimmer than the Pentagon’s previous assessments, which have sought to accentuate the positive even as officials acknowledged that Iraq’s government was struggling to assert authority and assure security amid a tide of violence.
Meanwhile, die-hard war hawk Hillary Clinton soundly bitchslapped Rumsfeld yesterday:
Gens. Abizaid and Pace, however, later backtracked somewhat off of their grim assessments of the situation, deciding that maybe they'd spoken too much truth already. Instead, based on absolutely nothing, they dutifully reported to John McCain that despite all evidence to the contrary, they still believed that the daily killings would not devolve further into civil war:
General Pace added his voice to General Abizaid’s somber assessment of the increasing sectarian violence, in an exchange with Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona.
Senator McCain: “You said there’s a possibility of the situation in Iraq evolving into civil war. Is that correct?”
General Pace: “I did say that, yes, sir.”
Senator McCain: “Did you anticipate this situation a year ago?”
General Pace: “No, sir.”
Before the session ended, the two generals made a point to offer relatively upbeat predictions.
While civil war in Iraq is possible, General Pace said, “I do not believe it is probable.”
General Abizaid said: “So the question is, am I optimistic whether or not Iraqi forces, with our support, with the backing of the Iraqi government, can prevent the slide to civil war? My answer is yes, I’m optimistic that that slide can be prevented.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times war apologist Thomas Friedman, who in 2003 wrote:
...this war is the most important liberal, revolutionary U.S. democracy-building project since the Marshall Plan...it is one of the noblest things this country has ever attempted abroad and it is a moral and strategic imperative that we give it our best shot.
...has now changed his tune:
It is now obvious that we are not midwifing democracy in Iraq. We are baby-sitting a civil war.
[snip]
The Sunni jihadists and Baathists are as dedicated as ever to making this U.S.-Iraqi democracy initiative fail. That, and the runaway sectarian violence resulting from having too few U.S. troops and allowing a militia culture to become embedded, have made Iraq a lawless mess.
Yes, I believe it was and remains hugely important to try to partner with Iraqis to create one good example in the heart of the Arab world of a decent, progressive state, where the politics of fear and tribalism do not reign — the politics that has produced all the pathologies of unemployment, religious intolerance and repression that make the Middle East so dangerous to itself and others.
But the administration now has to admit what anyone — including myself — who believed in the importance of getting Iraq right has to admit: Whether for Bush reasons or Arab reasons, it is not happening, and we can’t throw more good lives after good lives.
But where Friedman is sitting, in his big comfy chair, it was perfectly OK to throw those OTHER good lives away, back when SOME of us knew exactly how this was going to turn out, even if the so-called "experts" didn't.
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