At this rate, by Sunday they'll be telling us that Iranian nukes are on their way here

Arthur Silber:

A crucial part of the Iran propaganda campaign has been to steadily reduce the relevant time horizon, as I noted in this essay. The administration began with estimates of approximately a decade before Iran could have nuclear weapons -- which then got reduced to five years -- which then was further shrunk to a year or two -- then to a few months -- and now they are offering ludicrous stories about Iran having nukes within 16 days. Let me repeat the critical point: this is all propaganda. It doesn't matter in the least that they say this is what the intelligence indicates. Even if it were accurate, which almost all of it is not, the intelligence is not the foundation of the administration's foreign policy, with regard to Iran or more broadly.

In fact, I have thought for a few years that the decision to attack to Iran was made some time ago. I am more convinced of that now than I ever was before. The constant stream of scare stories about Iran is designed only to terrify the American public sufficiently, so that when Bush holds a press conference to announce air strikes against Iran that have already begun, enough people will believe that the strikes were necessary -- since Iran was about to launch nuclear weapons against us momentarily.

As with Iraq, all the major points will be lies. All of it will be war propaganda. And given our cowardly, inept, and fatally incompetent media and the lack of any significant political opposition -- which opposition, if it existed, ought to be making itself known now and not after the press conference -- and provided enough people are scared to the required degree, it will work. Again.

The nuking of Iran is a foregone conclusion, no matter how the Administration tries to spin it otherwise. All this talk from the State Department about Iran being 16 days away from being able to build a nuclear bomb is designed to soften us up for the inevitable. The 16 intelligence agencies (16 being suddenly a Significant Number in terms of war planning, as if castaway John Locke had been brought in from the hatch on Lost to determine war policy) remain steadfast in their view that Iran is at least several years away from being able to produce enough enriched uranium to build a bomb -- a timeframe which allows us to take the time to come up with a solution other than turning that country into a glass wasteland just because Rummy has an itchy button-finger.

Bush apologists will be tempted to claim that the intelligence agencies botched their job so badly that the 9/11 attacks happened, but we now know that the intelligence was there, but the president was too busy clearing brush in Crawford to take any of it seriously. Bush apologists will also claim that the intelligence agencies botched the Iraq weapons of mass destruction issue, but we now know that the Administration would only heed intelligence which met its preconceived notions.

Iran may not be a serious threat this minute, but the country presents a problem that requires a U.S. response built by competent, thoughtful people -- not a bunch of arrogant cowboys with sexual issues who think the entire world is their own private little video game arcade and who have played on American fears for five years in their efforts to turn this country into Stalinist Russia.