Another good reason to get into shape

Because you're going to do a whole lotta walking...or bicycling...in years to come.

Today, the analysts at Herold -- a research-only firm that issues valuations on several hundred publicly traded energy companies -- are making predictions even bolder than their call on Enron. They have begun estimating when each of the world's biggest energy companies will peak in its ability to produce oil and gas. Herold's work shows that the best minds in the energy industry are accepting the reality that the globe is reaching (or has already reached) the limit of its own ability to produce ever increasing amounts of oil.

Many analysts have estimated when the earth will reach its peak oil production. Others have done estimates on when individual countries will hit their peaks. Herold is the first Wall Street firm to predict when specific energy companies will hit their peaks.

Since last fall, Herold has done peak estimates on about two dozen oil companies. Herold believes that the French oil company, Total S.A., will reach its peak production in 2007. Herold expects 2008 to be critical, with Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A., all hitting their peaks. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In Herold's view, each of the world's seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so.

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Herold's projections have enormous ramifications both for stockholders in the major oil companies and for every energy consumer on the globe. If Herold is correct, and the world's biggest oil companies cannot increase their production in the coming years, then several things appear certain:

• Oil prices -- which are already at record levels -- will continue rising as demand outstrips supply. In a few years, gasoline prices of $2 per gallon could seem like a bargain.


• State-owned oil companies like Mexico's Pemex, Venezuela's PDVSA (Petroléos de Venezuela) and Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco may be unable to increase their production enough to meet burgeoning global demand.


• The producers who belong to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Saudi Arabia in particular, may have even more leverage over the global oil market in the coming years.


• The United States will be ever more reliant on oil imported from countries filled with people who don't like George W. Bush or his policies.

And something else appears certain: Over the next three years, the Bush Administration will seek to conquer as many oil-producing countries as he can, in an effort to secure as much of the world's remaining easily-accessible oil for the U.S. as possible.

Meanwhile, women my size continue to lumber around the suburbs in their giant Ford Expeditions, because once a week they have to load some hockey kneepads into the car. This kind of profligacy is right up there with people who buy those new McMansions with the huge entry foyers boasting ornate curved staircases, so that they can photograph their daughters coming down those stairs on their wedding day. It always amazes me that it's people with children, who in theory have a stake in the future, who are the biggest defenders of gas guzzlers. Parents used to want a better life for their children. Now they don't give a shit, as long as they can drive a bigger, nastier SUV than their neighbors.

Americans can put all the ribbon magnets on their SUVs that they want: it's not going to change the fact that oil is finite. And we can either start conserving to make it last a little longer, or else we are going to be in a world of shit -- and sooner than we think.

The relatively flat route to my job is just about 10 miles. I figure it would take me about an hour to get there by bicycle. I've been working out since last August, and I've got quads like rocks by now. What I'm really hoping, though, is that they'll come up with a solar-powered Vespa by the time the crude runs out. I think being 55 and riding a turquoise Vespa with matching helmet to work could be cool. And of course at that point, menopausal women will inherit the earth, because we have our own internal warming system so the lack of fuel to heat our homes won't be quite so bad.